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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."